Prime Minister Theresa May has moved the UK into a crisis over Brexit with the European Union making it clear that it is not agreeable to renegotiate the agreement with the United Kingdom over its exit from the EU.
With the House of Commons having overwhelmingly rejected the initial Brexit proposal of Theresa May two weeks ago, she did obtain the consent of the Commons this week to seek a possible renegotiation of the Brexit conditions with the EU, especially over the highly contentious issue of the ‘Back Stop’ relating to the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland that is a member of the EU.
The crisis over Brexit explained in brief by the BBC is as follows:
The UK will leave the European Union on March 29 but British MPs still can’t agree how.
Prime Minister Theresa May is desperate for them to back a deal she struck and on Tuesday (29), they got the chance to make their own proposals for how the deal should look.
Most proposals didn't get the support of the majority of MPs, but a key one did.
This amendment means Mrs. May has to return to the EU and try to negotiate a new deal (to sort out what kind of border there will be with Ireland).
The issue? The EU says it already negotiated a deal, and won't do so again.
The situation facing Theresa May and the United Kingdom in the two months to go until UK leaves the EU, the UK government still has not decided on what terms it should leave the EU. This is two years after the UK voters decided to leave the EU in a referendum where 52% voted in favour. Theresa May who succeeded Prime Minister David Cameron after the pro-Brexit referendum, has conducted the negotiations with the EU, with several resignations of key Cabinet Ministers, including Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and other key negotiation ministers, pushing for an exit that does not make clear the problems it would bring the UK, its economy and people to.
In November last year Theresa May came to a deal with the EU, considered a final deal, on which she said the British public did not ‘want any more time arguing about Brexit’. But, the deal was wholly rejected by the House of Commons, just over two weeks ago, in the largest ever defeat of any government proposal in the history of the Commons.
A Vote of No Confidence in her moved by the Labour Party leader after this defeat was won by Theresa May with a very slim majority, and she remains caught in the politics of turmoil, without a clear majority in parliament, and lack of sufficient support from her own Conservative Party. She is faced with the reality of the Labour Party not extending her its fullest support, as it prefers the situation that would lead to a General Election, which Labour believes it could win in the present context.
What is next with Brexit?
Theresa May has a mandate to ask the EU for further talks of the ‘backstop’ relating to the Irish border. The EU does not want such talks, and states the whole issue has been dealt with, in the early negotiations with May. The emerging question is, if the EU doesn't want to reopen negotiations, and the British Parliament can't find a compromise, what happens?
There is the possibility, not liked by the UK and EU, of a ‘hard Brexit’, where the UK would rush out of the EU on March 29, with no deal. There are rising concerns over the damage a “no deal” could do, such as causing delays in bringing food and materials into the UK, and the price of some goods in British shops shooting up, faced by the health services in the UK and many other concerns. The possibility of a ‘no deal’ exit has led to authorities in the UK to consider the necessity to use the Armed Forces to maintain law and order in is a critical situation that may lead to public unrest. This is certainly an extreme situation, but exposes the overall weakness of the original referendum that led to the Brexit vote two years ago, which did not deal with any of the consequences of an exit from the EU. There is increased opinion, especially among the public for a second referendum on Brexit, which will place the current realities before the people, and seek a new mandate. Opinion polls show an increased trend towards a ‘No Brexit’, or the possibility of having special Customs, Human Resources and other relations with the EU, if the UK is to exit.
Trump track
President Donald Trump certainly had a week that raised questions about his key policy and political issues, such as the wall on the southern border, and the related shutdown of one third of the US administration.
The new strength of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, which removed his control over the Congress also made Trump move away from his big noise and threats of presidential power relating to the building of the southern wall.
The new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, did put Donald Trump on the retreat when he was refused the opportunity to make the annual State of the Union address from the joint Houses of Congress. Trump, who earlier spoke of making a short address from the White House, later relented and gave in to Pelosi and the Democrats. He took action to bring to an end the shutdown of one-third of the administration due to his refusal to approve regular payments to employees, demanding Congress approval for US $ 5 billion for his border wall.
The shutdown and the possibility of it leading to a crisis in the aviation sector due to lack of necessary personnel, has led to much public criticism of President Trump’s policies, which are not supported by the wider public, but has strong support among a majority of Republican supporters of the Trump presidency.
To keep his threat of a new shutdown alive, Trump has just given another three weeks for both the Republicans and Democrats to make proposal to raise the huge funds needed for the border wall. This is the pattern of the Trump Presidency; stressing on his support for a shutdown, however painful it would be for the American people.
Attack on Intelligence Community
Emerging from the failures of the shutdown and giving in to the Democrats on the State of the Union Address, Donald Trump has brought a new issue of an attack of the US Intelligence Community, over its clear rejection of the president’s policies on North Korea and Iran.
President Trump has lashed out at the most senior US Intelligence Heads on their non acceptance of his thinking and strategies on North Korea and Iran. Triggering the president’s anger was an annual congressional hearing on global security threats, a routine event at which intelligence agency heads testified that Iran, while still a global menace, is complying with an international agreement designed to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons. Trump ridiculed that assessment and the intelligence leaders themselves, as reported in the Washington Post.
“The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong!” Trump wrote on Twitter. “.?.?. They are testing Rockets (last week) and more, and are coming very close to the edge. There [sic] economy is now crashing, which is the only thing holding them back. Be careful of Iran.”
He also added: “Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!”
Trump also disagreed with Intelligence Officials on the other hot button area of his foreign policy – North Korea, with a second meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un now being organised. Intelligence sources had clear doubts that North Korea had or will ever give up all of its nuclear weapons, or move towards nuclear disarmament.
Venezuela
The situation in Venezuela is fast emerging as a major international crisis, with the US and other Western countries supporting Juan Guaido, the political rival to President Nicolas Maduro, as the new head of state. Guaido, the leader of the legislature, declared himself acting president after the recent presidential election the results of which are questioned. The situation is worsened with Russia and China supporting President Maduro, and the Venezuelan economy is under bigger threat with US action against the already weak oil industry there. The situation keeps worsening.
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