The appointment of National Democratic Front (NDF) presidential election candidate Sajith Premadasa as the Leader of the Opposition represents a watershed for the United National Party (UNP) as well for opposition politics in Sri Lanka although it is likely to cause some fractious moments for the UNP in the coming months.
UNP leader and five times Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has been Leader of the Opposition for most of the past twenty-five years since assuming leadership of the party in 1994 after the assassinations of then President Ranasinghe Premadasa and presidential candidate Gamini Dissanayake.
However, with Premadasa’s demise Dissanayake returned to the UNP, contested the 1994 August general election as a UNP candidate from the Kandy district and returned to Parliament. The UNP lost that election and, in a contest with Wickremesinghe for the post of Leader of the Opposition, Dissanayake prevailed.
Dissanayake’s assassination at a presidential election campaign rally in October 1994 meant that he was Leader of the Opposition for a mere two months; the position reverted to Wickremesinghe thereafter who has held it for long periods except when he was Prime Minister. Throughout that period, he has remained leader of the UNP.
It is readily acknowledged that, in the run up to the November presidential election Wickremesinghe entertained thoughts of being the UNP’s presidential candidate. This led to procrastination in the naming of a candidate for the UNP-led alliance, giving Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) candidate a head start by a few weeks.
NDF’s candidate
It took great pressure from a variety of sources to have Premadasa affirmed as the NDF’s candidate. Firstly, long-term Wickremesinghe loyalists such as then ministers Mangala Samaraweera and Malik Samaraweera announced their support for Premadasa.
Then, a faction of the party began holding rallies ‘welcoming’ Premadasa in selected cities. Premadasa himself announced that he would contest the poll, no matter what, hinting that he could run as a separate candidate if the UNP did not nominate him.
It is no secret that there were similar issues in the lead up to the nomination of Premadasa as Leader of the Opposition. In the aftermath of the resounding defeat of Premadasa at the election, initially there was speculation as to whether the UNP led coalition would attempt to stay in office because, despite the results of the election, it was still the group able to muster a parliamentary majority.
Nevertheless, there was pressure from the public to respect the overwhelming verdict of the election. Several ministers, most of them staunch Premadasa loyalists, announced that they would be resigning from their Cabinet portfolios in view of the mandate received by President-elect, Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Thereafter Wickremesinghe announced that he was stepping down from the Premiership to allow the new President to form a government. Almost simultaneously, Akila Viraj Kariyawasam, General Secretary of the UNP and a Wickremesinghe loyalist wrote to Speaker Karu Jayasuriya stating that Wickremesinghe would be Leader of the Opposition.
Meanwhile, a campaign was underway among Premadasa loyalists to have him appointed as Leader of the Opposition. A letter supporting this appointment and carrying the signatures of a substantial number of opposition parliamentarians was then sent to Speaker Jayasuriya.
Initially, Jayasuriya recognised Wickremesinghe as the Leader of the Opposition. In a message on social media, he said that “Recognition of the leader of the UNFGG (United National Front for Good Governance) as the Leader of the Opposition was done upholding established parliamentary traditions that should not be violated. While I empathise with the challengers too, it is best that a party’s internal disputes are settled from within.”
UNP’s parliamentary group
Jayasuriya did so, adhering to the practice of accepting the person nominated by the secretary of the party with the largest number of opposition MPs. It was a similar process that elevated Mahinda Rajapaksa to the post of Leader of the Opposition, despite the protests of R. Sampanthan in the aftermath of the constitutional crisis last year when the UNP’s coalition with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) ended.
Despite Speaker Jayasuriya’s announcement, moves to have Premadasa appointed as Leader of the Opposition continued unabated, leading to a meeting between Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and Jayasuriya. Following this and a meeting of the UNP’s parliamentary group, Wickremesinghe agreed to cede the post of Leader of the Opposition to Premadasa.
This is not without precedent in the UNP. In the aftermath of the 1970 general election in which the UNP was routed by the United Front led by Sirima Bandaranaike, Dudley Senanayake continued as party leader but J. R. Jayewardene was appointed Leader of the Opposition. A significant factor in this decision was Senanayake’s poor health at the time.
Senanayake’s untimely demise in 1973 put paid to any long running dispute regarding the party leadership. Ironically, then it was left to Jayewardene, Wickremesinghe’s uncle, and Ranasinghe Premadasa, Sajith Premadasa’s father, to resurrect the UNP and lead it to the biggest victory recorded by any party in Sri Lanka at the 1977 general election.
While the appointment of Premadasa as Leader of the Opposition may appear as a significant shift for both Wickremesinghe as well as the UNP, the bigger question of leadership of the UNP remains. The former Prime Minister has indicated that he still wishes to remain at the helm of the party.
Meanwhile, Premadasa loyalists contend that while he was defeated at the presidential election, his performance in the short duration of time available to him was creditable. They argue that any other candidate- Wickremesinghe, for example- would have fared worse.
Their belief is that Premadasa as a candidate was paying for the sins of Wickremesinghe’s leadership of the UNP over the past two and a half decades, having taken the party in a direction of neo-liberalism, forsaking local values, neglecting concerns of the majority community and adopting a policy of appeasing the western world and the international community often at the expense of national interests.
To reverse this perception, they feel that the party needs to undergo a drastic change of image and this would be possible only with a change in leadership which offers a radical transformation of the UNP. Among the younger generation of UNP politicians they feel Premadasa is best placed to provide this kind of leadership.
Premadasa loyalists also feel that offering only the position of Leader of the Opposition to Premadasa without the leadership of the party will pave the way for more disagreements, particularly if Wickremesinghe refuses to take a back seat and insists on actively participating in most of the party’s key decision-making processes.
It is also clear to most UNPers that the upcoming general election will be an uphill battle for the party. The results of the presidential election are likely to have a domino effect on the electorate who will be very inclined to vote the SLPP in to office. Therefore, having a Leader of the Opposition with no real powers outside Parliament is effectively setting him up to fail, Premadasa loyalists feel.
Whether Wickremesinghe and his faction agrees with these arguments- and if they do not, what course of action they would resort to- will be put to the test in the coming weeks. One issue of major concern for loyalists of the former Premier is the fear that if Premadasa is given the party leadership now, there could be a purge of Wickremesinghe loyalists.
One way this could be achieved is by denying nomination for the general elections for those who actively campaigned against Premadasa within the party. This election will be held in the next few months and will determine not only the strength of the UNP in the next Parliament but also the future of the party in the long term.
Party leadership
Theoretically at least, Wickremesinghe still holds the aces as far as the party leadership is concerned. This is because choosing the party leader is a task entrusted to the party’s highest decision-making body, its Working Committee which is stacked with Wickremesinghe loyalists. If they remain loyal to him and if he persists in his wish to remain UNP leader, Premadasa and his supporters face an uphill task.
The UNP has been given a temporary reprieve by the prorogation of Parliament by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa but that only gives more time to the two factions to plan their strategies for the months ahead.
For the moment though, UNP General Secretary Kariyawasam has said party leader Wickremesinghe has appointed a six-member committee to determine the “way forward” for the UNP. They include Thalatha Atukorale, Ranjith Madduma Bandara, Malik Samarawickrema, Lakshman Kiriella, Vajira Abeywardena and Ashu Marasinghe.
The UNP is certainly at a crossroads in their long and distinguished history. The path they choose to follow will be crucial for its own survival as a major political party in the country. More importantly though, with the declining potency of the SLFP as a force to be reckoned with, it will also critical for democracy in the country in the years to come, in terms of its role as the principal opposition party.
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