The complex challenge posed by COVID-19 both in protecting public health and the socio-economic functioning of the country confront the policymakers with difficult choices. Large scale movement and physical distance restrictions, often referred to as ‘lockdowns’, can slow COVID‑19 transmission by limiting contact between people, but these measures can also have a negative economic impact and affect disadvantaged groups who most often live in overcrowded and under resourced settings, and depend on daily labour for subsistence.
The United Nations recognizes that at certain points, some countries have no choice but to issue stay-at-home notices (SHN) and other measures. The recent decision by the Government of Sri Lanka to keep in place an islandwide lockdown was critical to help limit the spread of the virus, provide time for the health system to increase its capacity, protect frontline healthcare workers, reach the vaccination targets, and most importantly save the lives of citizens.
Hanaa Singer-Hamdy
Economic recovery
Sustaining the current public health measures, while providing support to those who are most vulnerable to curfews and lockdowns, is an investment to allow Sri Lanka’s broader economic recovery in the medium term.
Sri Lanka is currently in the 11th position of the countries with highest number of deaths per 100,000 population, according to WHO figures on August 25, 2021. As indicated in the 6th Independent Technical Expert Group Meeting on August 26 convened by the World Health Organisation (WHO), if lockdowns are extended to September 18 and October 2, respectively, 7,500 and 10,000 deaths can be prevented (in comparison to a release on August 30). An extended lockdown allows time for the health system to recover from the current pressures including a shortage of beds and critical supplies like medical grade oxygen.
It is therefore important to count the human cost of the pandemic, over short-term economic concerns. The economy can recover but those we lose will never return. A short-term lockdown now will save lives, offer respite to the tireless healthcare workers, and limit the long-term social and economic dislocation of a wider COVID-19 outbreak.
There remain economic concerns with many believing that the long-term impact of the pandemic on the economy will cost many more lives in the future and drive businesses into bankruptcy and more individuals to poverty. The WHO in Sri Lanka recently projected that an extension of the lockdown to September 18, 2021 would result in an economic loss of US$ 1.67 billion, while an extension of the lockdown to October 2, 2021 would result in an economic loss of US$ 2.22 billion. However, economic activity can normalise in many areas when effective public health measures contain the spread of COVID-19. In 2020, Sri Lanka’s GDP quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels after a contraction of 16.4 per cent in the 2nd quarter of 2020, with the economy continuing to expand by 2.3 per cent on average the three quarters to March 2021 as transmission of COVID-19 remained relatively suppressed. This is testament to how maintaining strict lockdown measures during crucial periods reduces COVID-19 transmission and mortality and contributes to a safer public health environment as this gives workers and businesses the confidence to resume their economic activities and provides a basis for a sustainable economic recovery.
Lockdowns give the health service room to build capacity.
This lockdown period should be used to build capacities to detect, isolate, test and care for all COVID-19 cases; trace and quarantine all contacts and increase the rate of vaccination. It is also important to mobilize all sectors of the society, with partners supporting the Government in its engagement with faith groups, NGOs and the civil society, and thus help meet the needs of lower income groups who are bearing the brunt of the health and socio-economic effects of COVID-19. These measures will allow authorities the opportunity to plan for a systematic re-opening of sectors, regions, and the return of employment categories when the lockdown is lifted.
Vaccine programme
The Government has progressed impressively in vaccinating those above the age of 30 and current figures show that more than 56 per cent of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine and more than 31 per cent of the population has received both doses. The United Nations through the COVAX facility has supported the procurement of vaccine donations from Member States including the US and Japan and UNICEF and WHO have supported the health system in administering the vaccines.
However, a vaccine on its own will not end the COVID-19 pandemic. We will still need to continue with policy and medical measures such as surveillance, testing, isolating, and caring for cases and tracing and quarantining the contacts. The public must also continue to follow physical distancing and health measures such as washing hands and avoiding closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings.
Adhering to health guidelines is important.
The UN in Sri Lanka has provided technical assistance, material, skills, partner coordination and logistical support and will continue to work with government partners to address both the health and socioeconomic impact of the pandemic to help Sri Lanka recover and build back better. It is only through solidarity, partnership, and personal responsibility that we will defeat this virus – let us all do our part.
(Ms. Hanaa Singer-Hamdy is the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Sri Lanka and leads the UN Country Team of Resident and Non-Resident UN Agencies. She is the representative of the UN Secretary-General in Sri Lanka)
– Daily News Sri Lanka
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