by Randima Attygalle
Sri Lanka could soon face a health crisis of unprecedented proportions, showing a rapid increase in daily reported number of cases and deaths, point out WHO experts. At the Independent Expert Group Meeting convened by WHO Sri Lanka last Tuesday (10th) the experts observed with great concern that the current surge in COVID-19 is nearly overwhelming the capacity of the health systems to provide the required adequate care for people.
According to the projections made by the Monash University, Australia in collaboration with WHO SEAR and Sri Lanka Country Office, based on the MoH Epidemiology Unit data, with current levels of mobility restrictions, the number of cases would increase up to mid-September at 6,000 cases a day. By early October it is projected that around 220 deaths would occur per day. The joint study also projects that ICU admission will peak around 275 by early October with around 30,000 cumulative deaths by January, 2022. The WHO report by Independent Expert Group Meeting however notes that since the vaccine coverage assumed in the model is not yet achieved, the projections are an underestimate.
Reiterating the need to ‘ACT NOW’ the experts underline that the urgent priority is to save lives. ‘Sri Lanka will avert about 18,000 deaths by January, 2022 ‘if the level of stringency is immediately increased similar to May 2021 for four weeks,’ the report recommends. This time frame will enable accelerated vaccination and achieve a level of protection following the second dose, the WHO experts recommend. Moreover, it will also give time for the health system to recover from the overwhelming case load, they note.
With the decrease of the stringency from 84% (from May21 to June 21) to 29% by August and 32% from August 6, the cases and deaths have demonstrated a significant rise from around 1,500 in early July to nearly 3000 as of August 9, reveals the report. It also goes on to note that ‘with relaxations of stringency the mobility patterns have also shifted to pre-COVID levels.’
Calling for immediate actions which are ‘crucial and critical’, the experts also recommend strict movement restrictions including inter-district travel (except for essential services), cancellation of all public events for three weeks, providing care and protecting the health workers and augmenting the staff in hospitals to minimize disruption of essential health services and developing and implementing an effective communication plan to engage the public and updating them on the control measures.
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